Crossing thresholds on the way to ecosystem shifts

As the Earth system moves through continuous changes, scientists have attempted to predict pathways the planet will follow by unraveling trajectories of individual ecosystems and their interactions and by identifying the thresholds beyond which irreversible changes might occur (1). For example, increases in global aridity are known to affect terrestrial ecosystems, but it remains unknown whether modifications in global aridity will cause gradual or abrupt systemic or idiosyncratic transitions.

By Marina Hirota, et al.

Feb 14th, 2020

Global ecosystem thresholds driven by aridity

Increasing aridity due to climate change is expected to affect multiple ecosystem structural and functional attributes in global drylands, which cover ∼45% of the terrestrial globe. Berdugo et al. show that increasing aridity promotes thresholds on the structure and functioning of drylands (see the Perspective by Hirota and Oliveira). Their database includes 20 variables summarizing multiple aspects and levels of ecological organization. They found evidence for a series of abrupt ecological events occurring sequentially in three phases, culminating with a shift to low-cover ecosystems that are nutrient- and species-poor at high aridity values. They estimate that more than 20% of land surface will cross at least one of the thresholds by 2100, which can potentially lead to widespread land degradation and desertification worldwide.

By Miguel Berdugo, et al.

Feb 14th, 2020